TENNESSEE

Wildfire recovery in Gatlinburg could take years

Adam Tamburin
atamburin@tennessean.com

From afar, the fires carving into the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains on Monday night looked like lights glowing on a Christmas tree.

By the next morning, the flames had left large swaths of one of the nation’s most popular tourist destinations unrecognizable. Gov. Bill Haslam called it the worst fire the state had seen in a century.

The fire's destructive path ravaged almost 18,000 acres. Along the way, the wildfires killed at least 13 people, damaged or destroyed about 1,400 buildings and displaced more than 14,000 residents and visitors.

Houses were leveled, businesses were cratered and generations of memories were buried under ash and soot. While residents sifted through the wreckage to find treasured keepsakes, leaders promised to restore Gatlinburg to its former luster.

But they acknowledged it would be a historic task.

"We haven't seen anything like this, all of us who live around here,” Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander said during a Friday morning news conference.

There is no clear blueprint for what lies ahead, but disaster recovery experts warn that it will not be an easy — or brief — process. And it will be one that requires an unprecedented level of coordination, communication and resources.

“My first thought was, 'these guys are in for a long ride,' ” said Rob Brown, an elected official from Lake County, Calif., who coordinates the response to devastating wildfires there. “It could be decades.”

An aerial view shows destroyed homes the day after a wildfire that hit Gatlinburg on Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2016, in Sevier County.

But Brown and a scholar who studies disaster recovery efforts across the globe agreed the first weeks and months after the Gatlinburg wildfires will play a critical role in shaping the long-term recovery.

To help the resort town successfully regain its footing, the experts said, leaders there will need to act in lockstep to reassure residents, protect the city’s picturesque image and rebuild vital networks for the families at the heart of the community.

“You get one chance to do it right,” Brown said, words aimed directly at Gatlinburg and Sevier County. “Come back and make it better.”

Reducing uncertainty

Daniel Aldrich, director of the Northeastern University masters program in security and resilience, said the most pressing job is stamping out the one constant from the past week: uncertainty. That feeling has resonated the most with people who narrowly escaped the blaze but lost everything in the process.

"We often think about casualties from disasters in terms of those people who were injured, and of course that's a real category. But beyond that, what really happens is uncertainty,” Aldrich said. “If you got burned, we know the process of treating you. ... But if you lost your job and there's no obvious housing available in your price range, the future isn't so clear."

To reassure the anxious citizens, leaders will need to work together to provide a clear and consistent message. Setting deadlines for key goals, such as connecting people with long-term housing or insurance benefits, could be helpful, Aldrich said.

State launches fire disaster mapping

The stakes are high. Aldrich said lingering uncertainty after disasters often pushes people to seek stability by moving elsewhere.

“One of the real dangers you have is people losing interest and hope in the recovery process," he said. "If there isn't a clear signal, then the longer that goes on the more families and more individuals begin to think it's time to move on.”

Protecting tourism

A surefooted message also could preserve the fulcrum of Gatlinburg's economy: tourism. The Great Smoky Mountains National Park, the country’s most visited national park, has brought millions of people and billions of dollars to the city of the years.

Few people walked up and down the Parkway in downtown Gatlinburg on Monday, Nov. 28, 2016. Thick smoke from area forest fires covered much of Gatlinburg and the surrounding areas.

But the wildfire threatens to cast a shadow over the mountains. In tourism hotbeds like New Orleans, the fall-out from disasters persisted for years.

If Gatlinburg follows that model, the city and the surrounding mountains could become linked with horrific footage of flames shooting across roads while drivers prayed for their lives.

”People immediately change travel plans,” Aldrich said. "Even if there's really no danger to them, the fire is past and the fire is out and now we have hotels are operating again, unfortunately it takes a little bit of time for that message to get out."

There is no "silver bullet" to protect from the fall-out, Aldrich said.

Brown added that a dip in business is almost certain, at least in the short term. It will be important, they said, to market the area's tourism quickly with a consistent positive message, much like New Orleans did in the wake of Hurricane Katrina with commercials that trumpeted the music and culture that historically put the city on the national stage.

“Those are the kinds of things you really need to push right away. You’re not victims, you’re survivors,” he said. “You’ve got to push for the positive.”

Sevier County tourism will rise again, say officials

Facing the economic fall-out

The fall-out for the tourism industry will be amplified because many businesses that cater to tourists were damaged or destroyed. The economic blow will be severe on Gatlinburg's residents, many of whom depend on the industry for work.

Officials said they will establish a “job bank” to match the newly unemployed people with work. Brown said the massive recovery effort that lies ahead could offer an ironic solution to that problem.

In Brown's home of Lake County, where separate wildfires destroyed almost 1,500 homes in the past two years, locals were employed to raze damaged buildings, level the earth and build structures. That strategy has been an essential part of keeping citizens out of unemployment and engaged with their community, and it is one he said Gatlinburg should replicate.

“I can’t emphasize enough the value of making sure that locals are hired as much as possible to keep the money local for the recovery,” Brown said.

Housing is another top priority that could be bolstered by the flagging tourism industry. Vacant hotels could be an ideal site for long-term housing in the aftermath of the wildfire, Brown said. And Federal Emergency Management Agency funds ultimately could be available to cover those hotel stays.

Lisa McGill Reagan looks over the rubble of her home in Gatlinburg on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2016.

Another immediate concern for local officials should be making the most of the media spotlight shining on East Tennessee in the heart of the holiday season, according to Brown.

The attention is fleeting, Brown said, so there should be an intentional effort to capitalize on that to spur donations to charitable funds during this “window of opportunity.”

WEEKEND UPDATE: How to help in fire's wake

He also advised politicians to use the attention to get help from the federal and state governments.

“You’ve got the attention and the compassion of everybody in the state and the nation,” he said. “I know it sounds opportunistic, but it’s for the benefit of the community. … This is what government is supposed to do.”

In Lake County, Brown said, officials had connected a coalition of churches and nonprofits to help triage needs with a focus on the area's most vulnerable citizens. An informal version of that process is taking root in Sevier County, where several churches and organizations mobilized within hours to collect supplies and funds for victims of the wildfire.

For all of the heartache that has marked the last several days in East Tennessee, many of the locals who spoke to reporters said that rush to give sparked a sliver of optimism.

While volunteers hurried to fill large plastic bags and cardboard boxes with food and clothes at a makeshift shelter after the fire, many victims wiped away tears as they offered thanks. Mountain communities had looked after one another for generations, they said, and that won't stop now.

"You see this? This is Sevier County at what we do," Jasmine Hurt said when a volunteer asked what else she needed. "We give to every single person that ever was in our lives.

"When worse gets to worse, we give it back."

Reach Adam Tamburin at 615-726-5986 and on Twitter @tamburintweets.

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